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Back in 2015 when invited as a guest by MIT to the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference I came across a good bit of research on how in-game fouling had become a concept that the league is affecting the outcomes of games.
The overall point of research paper had the following outlined points:
- Fouling stops the shot clock earlier than shooting. Even if you wait 3 or 4 seconds, the possession is still much shorter than what you would need until you get a halfway descend three-point shot off
- It easily doubles the number of possessions
- An increased number of possessions increases the variance of outcomes